Quite a turn about

Sen. Obama REALLY needs a new pastor:

Senator Barack Obama’s aura of inevitability in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished in the wake of his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and the furor over his former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, largely before Mr. Obama’s news conference on Tuesday denouncing his former pastor, Reverend Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and may not fully capture the impact of that controversy or the response.

But the survey found that Mr. Obama, whose lead in the race for the delegates needed to secure the nomination has given him a commanding position over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton since February, is now perceived to be in a much tighter fight. Fifty-one percent of Democratic voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their party’s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight percent of Democrats say Mr. Obama is the candidate with the best chance of beating Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago.

Mr. Obama still holds an edge over Mrs. Clinton on several key measures; for example, 46 percent of the Democratic primary voters say he remains their choice for the nomination, while 38 percent preferred Mrs. Clinton, who has lost support among men in recent weeks. On that question, his margin actually grew, to eight from three points, over the past month.

Fed cuts interest rate again.

What impact will this have on the world?

The Federal Reserve, mixing its concern about the weak economy with worries about the rising cost of energy and food, reduced short-term interest rates Wednesday for the seventh time in seven months and left open the possibility of further reductions.

The Fed’s action, lowering short-term rates to 2 percent from 2.25 percent, followed new indications that the American economy remained fragile, expanding by 0.6 percent on an annualized basis in the first quarter, not an overall downturn that would have indication a full recession had begun.

Who are you?

CSI star caught!

The officer described Dourdan as disoriented and possibly under the influence of alcohol or drugs. The officer arrested Dourdan after locating suspected cocaine, heroin, Ecstacy, miscellaneous prescription drugs and paraphernalia.

If only there was some sort of law enforcement office that could handle the sciency side of using high-tech machines to determine if any crimes have been committed at various scenes.

IN ID

The Supreme Court weighed in on Indiana's voter ID law, which requires a picture ID for people to vote. Me thinks the state's Dems need to come up with a GOTVID drive.
The NYTimes (via Greenhouse) offers the split in the majority, along with the minority view. You can find all of the opinions in their entirety through links in the NYTimes article.

Voting experts said the ruling was likely to complicate election administration, leading to both more litigation and more legislation, at least in states with Republican legislative majorities, but would probably have a limited impact on this year’s presidential voting.

The issue has been intensely partisan, with Republicans supporting increased identification requirements for voters and Democrats opposing them. In what the court described as the “lead opinion,” which was written by Justice John Paul Stevens and joined by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, the court acknowledged that the record of the case contained “no evidence” of the type of voter fraud the law was ostensibly devised to detect and deter, the effort by a voter to cast a ballot in another person’s name.

But Justice Stevens said that neither was there “any concrete evidence of the burden imposed on voters who now lack photo identification.” The “risk of voter fraud” was “real,” he said, and there was “no question about the legitimacy or importance of the state’s interest in counting only the votes of eligible voters.”

The three others who made up the majority, Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel A. Alito Jr., said in an opinion by Justice Scalia that the law was so obviously justified as “a generally applicable, nondiscriminatory voting regulation” that there was no basis for scrutinizing the record to assess the impact on any individual voters. “This is an area where the dos and don’ts need to be known in advance of the election,” Justice Scalia said.

In a dissenting opinion, Justice David H. Souter said that for those on whom the law had an impact, the burden was “serious” and the state had failed to justify it. Like the Virginia poll tax the court struck down 42 years ago, he said, “the onus of the Indiana law is illegitimate just because it correlates with no state interest so well as it does with the object of deterring poorer residents from exercising the franchise.” The other dissenters were Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen G. Breyer.

SCOTUSblog has more HERE.

Roberts, Alito, and Federalism

So far, it's hard to tell how far New Judicial Federalism will go with Roberts and Alito on the SCOTUS. Me thinks in the right-leaning direction, but as with all things, it will often come down to the swing vote, which is Kennedy.

The Rehnquist Court returned power back to the states in rulings that scholars have dubbed "New Federalism." The appointments of Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito invite speculation about the future direction of federalism cases in the Supreme Court. A survey of the Roberts Court's federalism rulings discovers that the ideological pathways of new federalism depend upon Justice Kennedy's swing vote and the effects the new appointments have on shaping voting coalitions in light of the vacancies they have filled. Although there is a reconfigured "States’ Rights Five" voting coalition, neither Roberts nor Alito endorses rigid viewpoints about federalism and it remains uncertain if the Court will return to the type of aggressive new federalism which arguably defined the legacy of the Rehnquist Court.

Banks and Blakeman abstract.

Going local

Local and state governments are pretty cool. So says this abstract from a Publius article:

A 2007 trend survey revealed more Americans saying that the federal government gives them the least for their money and has too much power. The proportions citing high trust in the federal government and saying the federal government needs more power were low. The proportions holding positive attitudes toward state and local government were high, though local government scored best on most questions. More than half of Americans reported that their state is treated with the respect it deserves in the US federal system, compared with less than half of Canadians stating the same about their province. Slightly more than half of the US public judged three major federalism actions of President George W. Bush to have been helpful to state and local governments.

Brought to you by two smart guys with the names of Kincaid and Cole.

The Young and Restless

So says Ambinder. Times, they are a changin':

It's no secret that Republicans have a brand problem; the gap between Dem and GOP party identification is greater today than at any point since the vanguard of the Reagan revolution, when Republicans held a double-digit advantage. Researchers at Pew have put a decade's worth of data through their analytical minds and come to the conclusion that the leading edge of the Democratic edge is among young voters. This isn't surprising, but it is noteworthy. Consider: Voters under 30 in the Midwest are twice as likely to call themselves Democrats as they are to identify as Republicans. 63% of women under age 30 identify as Democrats versus just 28% who call themselves Republicans. Democrats even have the affiliation of a majority of young men. A potential objection: that old canard, that young people are liberal and become more conservative? The historical data doesn't support it. When Bill Clinton was elected, a plurality of people under 30 identified themselves as Republicans. Same thing when Ronald Reagan was elected. Politically, today's cohort of 18-to-29 year olds came of age during the Bush presidency. It has turned them into Democrats.

Interesting

Go to SCOTUSblog for an update on a Virginian's efforts to halt his execution. Me thinks he doesn't stand a chance.

Articles worth reading

A) Zakaria from Foreign Policy. Apparently he has a new book coming out and this is a source piece. Spoiler alert: America still kicks ass, but we need to become more moderate and less partisan to handle the challenges ahead. Solutions in these articles are always lacking and simplistic. But his analysis of the world is excellent, as well as his reasons for maintaining an inclusive and immigrant-accepting society.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501facomment87303/fareed-zakaria/the-future-of-american-power.html
B) Haas, FP. Nonpolarity. Interesting. Again with the moderation. Again the interesting part is the commentary on the state of the world and likely dangers on the horizon. Less fun with solutions. Basically, America should not be America.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20080501faessay87304/richard-n-haass/the-age-of-nonpolarity.html
C) Kennedy with a book review. He of the great powers, which really blew the call on the US, but I guess nailed the USSR. Interesting review about three new "big history" books.
D) Achenbach from WP Outlook on what presidents do. Fun for students.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/25/AR2008042503098.html

Two great points

Elizabeth Edwards has something to say about the media.
Matt Bai offers some interesting insights about extremes.

Dropped down a Peg

This is interesting commentary, particularly because it comes from Peggy Noonan, former Reagan speech writer:

In Lubbock, Texas – Lubbock Comma Texas, the heart of Texas conservatism – they dislike President Bush. He has lost them. I was there and saw it. Confusion has been followed by frustration has turned into resentment, and this is huge. Everyone knows the president's poll numbers are at historic lows, but if he is over in Lubbock, there is no place in this country that likes him. I made a speech and moved around and I was tough on him and no one – not one – defended or disagreed. I did the same in North Carolina recently, and again no defenders. I did the same in Fresno, Calif., and no defenders, not one.

He has left on-the-ground conservatives – the local right-winger, the town intellectual reading Burke and Kirk, the old Reagan committeewoman – feeling undefended, unrepresented and alone.

This will have impact down the road.

I finally understand the party nostalgia for Reagan. Everyone speaks of him now, but it wasn't that way in 2000, or 1992, or 1996, or even '04.

I think it is a manifestation of dislike for and disappointment in Mr. Bush. It is a turning away that is a turning back. It is a looking back to conservatism when conservatism was clear, knew what it was, was grounded in the facts of the world.

The reasons for the quiet break with Mr. Bush: spending, they say first, growth in the power and size of government, Iraq. I imagine some of this: a fine and bitter conservative sense that he has never had to stand in his stockinged feet at the airport holding the bin, being harassed. He has never had to live in the world he helped make, the one where grandma's hip replacement is setting off the beeper here and the child is crying there. And of course as a former president, with the entourage and the private jets, he never will. I bet conservatives don't like it.

This may, in a roundabout way, give McCain a little leeway in attracting conservatives who DON'T like the President. Time will tell. Here's Noonan's entire column.

Snipes in stripes?

Inmate 52. For three years anyway.

Shaken AND stirred on the set of the new Bond film.

The Generals of the Middle East

Great article about the shifting US generals of the Middle East. Gen. Chiarelli is great. Note that the former Centcom Commander's name (Fallon) is misspelled.
These changes are particularly important for Afghanistan.

Can't be too surprising

From the NYTimes:

Gen. David H. Petraeus, who has commanded United States troops in Iraq for the past year, will be nominated to head the United States Central Command, which oversees military operations across a wide swath of the Middle East, Africa and Asia, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates announced Wednesday.

Dems to increase Senate lead

From PoliticalWire, from Novak:

The Evans-Novak Political Report on the 2008 U.S. Senate races:

"This will be another good year for Democratic Senatorial Committee Chairman Charles Schumer (D-NY). Despite holding a razor-thin majority, Democrats have basically zero chance of losing control, and they are poised to make major gains."

"Three GOP-held open seats (Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia) look ready to flip to the Democrats, and two Republican incumbents John Sununu (NH) and Norm Coleman (MN) are currently underdogs. Republicans have no good pickup opportunities."

Race and Elections

Interesting commentary by Roger Simon of Politico. Race has an impact on how people vote. Not the most surprising factoid there, but important.

There is a percentage of the American electorate who will simply not vote for a black person no matter what his qualities or qualifications.

How big is that percentage? An AP-Yahoo poll conducted April 2-14 found that “about 8 percent of whites would be uncomfortable voting for a black for president.”

I don’t know if 8 percent sounds high or low to you, but I was amazed that 8 percent of respondents were willing to admit this to a pollster. And I figure that the true figure is much higher.

The same poll, by the way, found that 15 percent of voters think Obama is a Muslim. He is, in fact, a Christian. But thinking a person is a Muslim probably does not encourage you to vote for him in America today.

And consider this little nugget from Monday’s Washington Post, in a story by Kevin Merida and Jose Antonio Vargas datelined Scranton, Pa.:

“Barack Obama’s campaign opened a downtown office here on March 15, just in time for the annual St. Patrick’s Day parade. It was not a glorious day for Team Obama. Some of the green signs the campaign had trucked in by the thousands were burned during the parade, and campaign volunteers — white volunteers — were greeted with racial slurs.”

Grin and bear it

Vermont Teddy Bears are getting in on the election party.

Calinfornia's Healtcare Efforts

After the Governor tried to implement a universal coverage plan, the state is now trying to come up with other methods of covering residents. The problem is that with each additional mandate on insurers, the costs of premiums may go up for customers, which could end up forcing more people to turn away from health care. Recession politics is always ugly. See the Sacramento Bee.

The Money Game

Interesting article in the WaPo about the quest for money by the GOP. A tough year for them, but the Dems inability to pick a nominee might just be the GOP's greatest gift.

McCain insane?

Interesting article in the Washington Post about McCain's temper. Hopefully he can keep it under control.

Media and military, sitting in a tree

Great article from the NYTimes about the relationship between many media military analysts and the Defense Department. The ties seem to be quite inappropriate.

Specia Forces

The War in Afghanistan has its bright spots and weak spots. Here's a story about a bright spot: US Special Forces efforts to train Afghan special forces. Major problem is that it will take a LONG LONG time, and this is in an area we're pouring tons of resources into, and working with the best and brightest of what we hope will be happy Afghanistan.

Higher and higher

I guess there really must be blood! Oil prices are still rising. From ABCNews.

Retail gas prices set new records Friday on their seemingly relentless march toward $3.50 a gallon, and diesel prices pushed further above $4 a gallon. Crude futures, meanwhile, surged to a new record of $117 a barrel.

Court stuff

Here's an interesting article on Justice Stevens and the death penalty. From the NYTimes resident court expert.

Interesting article about the politics of abortion in South Carolina. One can wonder if such an issue will eventually make its way up to the SCOTUS. From Columbia, SC's The State paper.

Microtargeting

Perhaps a bit scary, but pollsters really know their stuff - and ours. See this article on microtargeting.

President Bush says goodbye

Funny. Bush's interview with Jon Stewart.

US Govt Gets Pushy

Congress encroaching on state priorities.

Draw!

So when you're at work in Florida, and you're having an argument with someone that doesn't end well, and they say, "I have to run out to my car. I'll be right back," me thinks you should not stick around. See HERE.

Tough town

When walking your cougar in Chicago, always remember to keep him on a leash:

A cougar ran loose in Chicago on Monday for the first time since the city's founding in the 19th Century. But by day's end, the animal lay dead in a back alley on the North Side, shot by police who said they feared it was turning to attack.

Interesting

Strong rebuttal to recent Iraq War arguments from the Administration.

Obama at Cooper Union

A bit of a stretch, but the similarities between Obama and Lincoln and their two famous pre-presidential speeches are remarkable.

Tight rope act

Arnold has a difficult balancing act here:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger told a group of gay Republicans on Friday that an attempt to ban same-sex marriage by changing the state Constitution is a "total waste of time" and promised to oppose such an initiative if it qualifies for the state ballot.

Backers of the measure criticized the governor as a liberal despite his Republican Party affiliation, while supporters of same-sex marriage applauded Schwarzenegger.

Founders and Religion

Richard Brookhiser writes a fine review of what looks like an interesting - and fair - book. Best line:

As a Washington biographer, I have been assured, during the Q. and A. periods after talks, that George Washington saw the Virgin Mary at Valley Forge and converted to Roman Catholicism on his deathbed (why wait, if he had seen the Virgin 21 years earlier?).

Scalia book coming out

From the Washington Post.

Powerful documentary

About Iraq: Bad Voodoo's War.

Fighting has benefits

The fight for the Democratic nomination may destroy the Party, but it will be a bigger party. See HERE.

Crafty

Here's one way to get around having to fix the presidential election process via a Constitutional amendment. Have all states award their own electoral votes to whoever wins the national vote. Illinois is the latest to sign on. It will take a LONG time for this to come about.

Coll call

Steve Coll, who wrote the amazing Ghost Wars, offers a tougher look at Petreaus.

Bush and Petraeus sitting in a tree...

From the WaPo on the Bush-Petraeus relationship. HERE.

Getting a little tricky for the Army. HERE.

The Clintons are rich!

OMG. I can't believe it! The Clintons have made lots of money since leaving the White House! Oh, no wait. I read the papers and it was common knowledge until everyone needed a new story.
See SNL's take.

The GOP is blue?

Interesting and long article on the difficulties the Republican Party is facing. Spoiler alert: it's not good for the elephants.

Wisconsin beats Frankenstein!

Next up, the Wolfman.
Still, it seems they left themselves, or their governor, with the Bride of Frankenstein.